股災何時來？

#聯儲局 #股災

　　昨文(22日)提出，美儲局於上周五(18日)加了IEOR和RRP息0.05厘，是可以啟動了個股災程序。

　　股災，是市場缺水，但如美儲局的逆回購資金有逾千億(現在是7500億)，美國是不易有股災，但隨著美儲局有心退市、縮表，這個「市場缺水的旱災」遲早來臨。市會點跌?在2020年就見過了「Repo魔，市多磨」一役。

　　2019年在美金融界，可以稱為Repo年。

　　Repo是美國的銀行向美儲局的拆息。美儲局一心減息，但2019年9月之後，Repo息一度升上10厘，美股曾因之大挫。之後至今，美儲局都為Repo事頭痛，一旦痛麻了，美股就危了。

（iStock圖片）

　　這先要從美儲局(2019年)12月的議息會議紀錄說起，要看原文:

　　"The manager discussed two operational considerations around policy implementation. The first involved the risk that future Treasury bill purchases could have a larger effect on liquidity in the Treasury bill market in light of expected seasonal declines in bill issuance and the Federal Reserve 's growing ownership share of outstanding bills. If this risk were to materialize, the Federal Reserve could consider expanding the universe of securities purchased for reserve management purposes to include coupon-bearing Treasury securities with a short time to maturity."

　　"Purchases of these short-dated securities would not affect broader financial conditions or the stance of monetary policy. The manager also discussed expectations to gradually transition away from active repo operations next year as Treasury bill purchases supply a larger base of reserves. The calendar of repo operations starting in mid-January could reflect a gradual reduction in active repo operations. The manager indicated that some repos might be needed at least through April, when tax payments will sharply reduce reserve levels."

　　這個紀錄說明了:

　　1.美儲局會透過買入票據來放水，以解錢荒；

　　2.必要時再用Repo撐住，撐到2020年4月，簡單總結，美儲局再QE了。

　　美國市場的錢荒可見諸圖一，2019年1月1日報告，Repo升上6.125厘，是自2001年以來最高的，亦高於美國聯邦基金利率400點子。