[ET Net News Agency, 29 June 2026] After experiencing nine consecutive negative sessions, the HSI finally saw some sunshine this morning. Driven by capital speculation in the tech and biotech sectors, the HSI at one point rebounded by more than 500 points. By the half-day close, the HSI was still up 481 points or 2.1%, at 23,153, with Main Board turnover exceeding HKD 172.9 billion. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index stood at 7,670, up 209 points or 2.8%. The Hang Seng Tech Index stood at 4,412, up 156 points or 3.7%.
"Ng Lai Yin: Market severely oversold, next month's rebound might happen without major reason"
The HSI staged a rare big rebound this morning, unseen for more than half a month. Following the pursuit of Chinese ADRs by US stocks last Friday, tech stocks in the HSI generally fared well this morning. The market heavyweight Alibaba (09988) saw a rare rebound, and the HSI once rose by more than 500 points during the half-day session, reclaiming the 23,000 level. Ng Lai Yin, a securities strategist at Everbright Securities, told ET Net News Agency that when major tech stocks were under pressure previously, AI hardware stocks surged, so it is reasonable for tech stocks to rebound today after plunging for many days; relatively speaking, hardware stocks pulled back somewhat. He pointed out that the market has dropped by more than 2,000 points in cumulative terms in June, and even reached 3,500 points between the high and low points. Based on the past ten times when the market dropped by more than 2,000 points, there was a more than 50% chance that it would welcome a big rebound in the following month, hence he has relatively high confidence in a rebound next month.
The market is looking forward to "Go-down in May, bottom-out in June, and turn-around in July". Ng pointed out that if there is to be a rebound next month, there might not be any specific reason, and a technical rebound purely after a big drop is highly likely. He believes that the fundamentals of traditional tech stocks remain unchanged at present, and it is impossible for the market to keep falling. He expects that tech stocks might outperform expectations even while the market looks down on them; if economic data improves slightly, it will be positive for tech stocks both in terms of market sentiment and earnings results. He expects that led by the tech rebound, the short-term resistance target for the HSI will be 23,800 to 24,000.
As for the AI hardware stocks that corrected by taking advantage of the situation today, Ng does not think the sector has peaked just yet. The current fundamentals remain strong, and it is not surprising for them to pull back now after a huge rally, with expectations that they can repair their share prices alongside tech stocks later.
"Tencent is the most stable, Alibaba is the most worth betting on"
Among tech stocks, Alibaba's trend affects the HSI the most. The decline in June was mainly due to heavy selling of Alibaba by southbound capital and other funds. Ng admitted frankly that Alibaba's slump over the past half-month involved a lot of panic sentiment. Although there was little positive news, the negative news was not to the extent of causing such a decline, hence around the current price of HKD 90, it has become a reasonable level for medium-to-long term deployment.
Earlier, rumors circulated that 618 sales results were poor, which also dragged down Alibaba's share price performance. Ng admitted that because e-commerce is still Alibaba's core business, if the e-commerce business performs poorly, Alibaba's first fiscal quarter earnings performance ending June will also be hard to look good, especially following the sharp drop in adjusted net profit in the fourth fiscal quarter. If viewed from a profit perspective, market expectations for Alibaba's earnings must be poor. However, he believes that Alibaba is developing well in AI, with growth accelerating and its revenue share increasing, which has a chance to offset the poor e-commerce performance.
As for e-commerce rivals Meituan (03690) and JD.com (09618), their share prices have also fallen quite a bit during the period. Ng believes that investors can also start paying attention to Meituan, as after all, its share price has fallen significantly. Although the instant retail business is still under pressure, the overall loss has improved significantly quarter by quarter, and it is expected to look up. Relatively, JD.com involves more electrical appliance sales and contains more domestic demand elements, so it will be more heavily affected by economic data. By comparison, betting on Meituan is better than JD.com.
As for Tencent (00700), it has just been the member with the most stable business among many tech stocks. However, Ng mentioned that although Tencent does not involve retail elements, its AI development is relatively lagging, even slower than Alibaba's. Therefore, it is expected that Tencent can recover steadily in a rebounding trend, and he suggests that conservative investors hold it for the medium-to-long term. As for investors with higher risk appetite, they would rather bottom-fish Alibaba.
"Ng Lai Yin: Market severely oversold, next month's rebound might happen without major reason"
The HSI staged a rare big rebound this morning, unseen for more than half a month. Following the pursuit of Chinese ADRs by US stocks last Friday, tech stocks in the HSI generally fared well this morning. The market heavyweight Alibaba (09988) saw a rare rebound, and the HSI once rose by more than 500 points during the half-day session, reclaiming the 23,000 level. Ng Lai Yin, a securities strategist at Everbright Securities, told ET Net News Agency that when major tech stocks were under pressure previously, AI hardware stocks surged, so it is reasonable for tech stocks to rebound today after plunging for many days; relatively speaking, hardware stocks pulled back somewhat. He pointed out that the market has dropped by more than 2,000 points in cumulative terms in June, and even reached 3,500 points between the high and low points. Based on the past ten times when the market dropped by more than 2,000 points, there was a more than 50% chance that it would welcome a big rebound in the following month, hence he has relatively high confidence in a rebound next month.
The market is looking forward to "Go-down in May, bottom-out in June, and turn-around in July". Ng pointed out that if there is to be a rebound next month, there might not be any specific reason, and a technical rebound purely after a big drop is highly likely. He believes that the fundamentals of traditional tech stocks remain unchanged at present, and it is impossible for the market to keep falling. He expects that tech stocks might outperform expectations even while the market looks down on them; if economic data improves slightly, it will be positive for tech stocks both in terms of market sentiment and earnings results. He expects that led by the tech rebound, the short-term resistance target for the HSI will be 23,800 to 24,000.
As for the AI hardware stocks that corrected by taking advantage of the situation today, Ng does not think the sector has peaked just yet. The current fundamentals remain strong, and it is not surprising for them to pull back now after a huge rally, with expectations that they can repair their share prices alongside tech stocks later.
"Tencent is the most stable, Alibaba is the most worth betting on"
Among tech stocks, Alibaba's trend affects the HSI the most. The decline in June was mainly due to heavy selling of Alibaba by southbound capital and other funds. Ng admitted frankly that Alibaba's slump over the past half-month involved a lot of panic sentiment. Although there was little positive news, the negative news was not to the extent of causing such a decline, hence around the current price of HKD 90, it has become a reasonable level for medium-to-long term deployment.
Earlier, rumors circulated that 618 sales results were poor, which also dragged down Alibaba's share price performance. Ng admitted that because e-commerce is still Alibaba's core business, if the e-commerce business performs poorly, Alibaba's first fiscal quarter earnings performance ending June will also be hard to look good, especially following the sharp drop in adjusted net profit in the fourth fiscal quarter. If viewed from a profit perspective, market expectations for Alibaba's earnings must be poor. However, he believes that Alibaba is developing well in AI, with growth accelerating and its revenue share increasing, which has a chance to offset the poor e-commerce performance.
As for e-commerce rivals Meituan (03690) and JD.com (09618), their share prices have also fallen quite a bit during the period. Ng believes that investors can also start paying attention to Meituan, as after all, its share price has fallen significantly. Although the instant retail business is still under pressure, the overall loss has improved significantly quarter by quarter, and it is expected to look up. Relatively, JD.com involves more electrical appliance sales and contains more domestic demand elements, so it will be more heavily affected by economic data. By comparison, betting on Meituan is better than JD.com.
As for Tencent (00700), it has just been the member with the most stable business among many tech stocks. However, Ng mentioned that although Tencent does not involve retail elements, its AI development is relatively lagging, even slower than Alibaba's. Therefore, it is expected that Tencent can recover steadily in a rebounding trend, and he suggests that conservative investors hold it for the medium-to-long term. As for investors with higher risk appetite, they would rather bottom-fish Alibaba.
