The political-economic commentary "Xi-Trump Summit" has concluded. What has been achieved?
1. The world watched a comedy titled "Frenemies",
2. There is a result that bears no tangible outcome,
3. There is a super achievement that rewrites the global AI landscape.
"Frenemies" is a comedy that premiered in the United States in January 2012, translated into Chinese as "The Battle of Friendship," depicting three pairs of teenagers who turn from friends to enemies, then back to friends again, competing in a fashion contest. Being a comedy, it ends happily.
Recently online, many people have seen cartoon depictions of the Xi-Trump summit.
The result with no tangible outcome is the extension of the "Busan Agreement" from its original expiry date of November 10, 2026, to January 10, 2027. This agreement was initially reached when Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump met in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025. In business terms, this is called deferring to the next meeting. In imperial court terms, it is called dismissing the court with no business concluded. What exactly has been deferred? See the end of the article.
With the Busan Agreement extended to January 10, 2027, two future summits are scheduled to be completed by December 31, 2026. What does this mean?
It means two summits will be held within the next 60 days, leaving no time to sleep for Chinese and American diplomatic personnel. Besides diplomats, many others will also lose sleep.
Recall, what happened on January 3, 2026?
The United States arrested Venezuela's legitimate president Maduro and instead "appointed" a puppet president, seizing Venezuela's oil production and export rights.
On February 28, it attacked Iran, cutting off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz to this day.
80% of Venezuela's oil output is exported to China (about 400,000 barrels/day), and 90% of Iran's oil is exported to China (accounting for 13% of China's oil imports).
*U.S. attempts to cut off China's oil, but countered by rare earth restrictions*
Within the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. severed China's primary sources of affordable oil. China could only turn to Saudi Arabia and Iraq for procurement, but prices are no longer affordable. The only remaining affordable oil source is Russia, which became the largest oil supplier to China in 2025, accounting for 17.5% of China's imports.
How did China respond? With less affordable oil from Venezuela and Iran, China bought more expensive oil and continued smuggling.
China's countermove was to restrict rare earth exports.
How did the U.S. respond? By establishing five new/collaborative departments:
*Economic Defence Unit
*Office of Strategic Capital
*Export - Import Bank
*Department of War
*Treasury Department
These five departments share a common priority: rapidly stockpiling strategic mineral reserves needed by the U.S. Hence, the U.S. government took equity stakes in rare earth miner MP Materials (US.MP) and funded mineral trader Glencore to stockpile minerals. Of course, there's also the recent takeover of Greenland, which is not about military security but about the mineral resources beneath. In short, the U.S. is urgently catching up on decades of neglect in stockpiling resources.
Why was it neglected? Stockpiling ties up capital, which Wall Street and U.S. businesses focused on short-term profits dislike. Moreover, the U.S. government, due to financial difficulties, lacked funds for stockpiling. But now that the conflict has become direct, it must pull out all stops to stockpile materials, including invading Venezuela and forcibly taking over Greenland. In short, any country possessing resources the U.S. needs will be "entered," akin to Japan's "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," now dubbed the "American Empire Exclusive Prosperity Sphere."
It's clear that time works against China; each week delayed continues to raise the cost of China's oil imports.
The U.S. can afford to delay for a year or even several years while gradually rebuilding strategic reserves. But if U.S. defense and AI industries lack urgently needed rare earths, they could collapse tomorrow—no need to talk grandly about how America will become great again.
*U.S. urgently sells soybeans to help farmers, consolidating midterm election votes*
However, American soybean farmers, a key voting bloc for Trump and the Republican Party, harvest their crops between September and November, primarily in September and October. Last year, U.S. soybeans couldn't be sold to China, and warehouses were full. This year, if they cannot sell in time and run out of storage, the soybeans will rot in the fields. Trump might tolerate it, but soybean farmers cannot.
Therefore, both China and the U.S. have decided on a swift resolution within 60 days. During this period, the U.S. will work hard to accumulate leverage to call its hand by January 10 next year or earlier. During this time, the U.S. government's spending will likely exceed any previous period, meaning fiscal deficits and U.S. debt will rise, rise, rise. Economists may furiously warn of trouble, citing increased money supply leading to inflation. Trump will say: "So what? Treasury Secretary Bessent will print enough dollars to cover it." Is that possible? Yes, we'll discuss that later.
The game between China and the U.S. over the next 60 days is pointless to predict, as the under-the-table kicks are impossible to foresee accurately. We'll wait to see the moves before discussing further.
As for the super achievement that rewrites the global AI landscape: China and the U.S. agreed to change Artificial Intelligence to Super Intelligence!!!
While the two men, Xi and Trump, hug each other on the surface while kicking each other under the table, wouldn't the two leading ladies also have their own showdown? The White House hostess, already a tall model, wears 8- or 9-inch high heels—why? Just to tower over the Chinese female guest by a head, perfectly aligning with MAGA. The Chinese female guest wears full Chinese red, matching her husband's Sun Yat-sen suit, forming a national team ensemble.
In diplomacy, nothing is trivial. How could clothing coordination at diplomatic events not become a major issue!!!
Having discussed the politics of the Xi-Trump summit, it's time to turn to the economics of the stock market.
Starting today (28th), the last three trading days before the National Day holiday for A-shares begin. The "pre-holiday risk-off" mindset may gradually give way to "post-holiday positioning," making the market more optimistic than now. This pattern is actually supported by historical market trends. According to Wind data back-testing over the nine years from 2017 to 2025, even excluding 2024 data (to avoid excessively inflating the average), the Wind All-A Index still shows a "first decline, then rise" bullish structure in the last three pre-holiday days.
Specifically: The third-to-last day is the "most dangerous" day: excluding 2024's policy interference, only 2 out of 8 years saw gains (25%), averaging a 0.68% decline, with a median of -0.48%. This is the day when pre-holiday risk-off sentiment is most concentrated and volume contraction is most extreme, with funds collectively reducing positions. The last two days clearly turn bullish: the probability of gains rises to 62%, and the average return shifts from negative to positive. This does not contradict "low volume"—after selling pressure exhausts in a low-volume environment, minimal buying (positioning for post-holiday gains plus pre-holiday stability) can push indices slightly higher. "Closing red on the last day" is a relatively stable calendar feature: in 9 years, the last day rose 6 times (67%), still 5 out of 8 (62%) excluding 2024, averaging +0.23%. The market tends to close on a positive note on the last trading day before a long holiday.
According to Gann theory and werewolf legend, major changes occur on full moon nights. The Mid-Autumn Festival has just passed. Will the market shift tone?
﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏
*Details of the "Busan Agreement" Extension*
The United States and China announced in September 2026 that they would extend the truce period of their "Busan Agreement" by two months to January 10.
*I. Background and Latest Developments*
*Extended Deadline: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that after talks in Washington, both sides agreed to extend the trade truce from the original November 10 to January 10.
*Origin of the Agreement: The Busan Agreement was a ceasefire consensus reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025, regarding the trade war.
*Pursuing a Larger Deal: U.S. officials indicated that extending the deadline gives both sides more time to discuss whether a larger, comprehensive trade agreement can be reached.
*II. Core Contents of the Agreement*
*Tariff Adjustments: Both sides previously agreed to reduce some of the tariffs imposed on each other, and the U.S. also extended certain tariff exemptions.
*Export Controls: Both sides have paused export controls on rare earths and high-tech products for one year.
*Agricultural Purchases: China committed to resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products. Senior Investor, Shek King-chuen
(Investing involves risk; every investor has a different risk tolerance, so independent thinking is essential. The author may trade based on market conditions.)
*Articles published in Economic Times, signed or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not reflect the position of Economic Times. Economic Times plays the role of providing a free speech platform. (zz)
1. The world watched a comedy titled "Frenemies",
2. There is a result that bears no tangible outcome,
3. There is a super achievement that rewrites the global AI landscape.
"Frenemies" is a comedy that premiered in the United States in January 2012, translated into Chinese as "The Battle of Friendship," depicting three pairs of teenagers who turn from friends to enemies, then back to friends again, competing in a fashion contest. Being a comedy, it ends happily.
Recently online, many people have seen cartoon depictions of the Xi-Trump summit.
The result with no tangible outcome is the extension of the "Busan Agreement" from its original expiry date of November 10, 2026, to January 10, 2027. This agreement was initially reached when Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump met in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025. In business terms, this is called deferring to the next meeting. In imperial court terms, it is called dismissing the court with no business concluded. What exactly has been deferred? See the end of the article.
With the Busan Agreement extended to January 10, 2027, two future summits are scheduled to be completed by December 31, 2026. What does this mean?
It means two summits will be held within the next 60 days, leaving no time to sleep for Chinese and American diplomatic personnel. Besides diplomats, many others will also lose sleep.
Recall, what happened on January 3, 2026?
The United States arrested Venezuela's legitimate president Maduro and instead "appointed" a puppet president, seizing Venezuela's oil production and export rights.
On February 28, it attacked Iran, cutting off oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz to this day.
80% of Venezuela's oil output is exported to China (about 400,000 barrels/day), and 90% of Iran's oil is exported to China (accounting for 13% of China's oil imports).
*U.S. attempts to cut off China's oil, but countered by rare earth restrictions*
Within the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. severed China's primary sources of affordable oil. China could only turn to Saudi Arabia and Iraq for procurement, but prices are no longer affordable. The only remaining affordable oil source is Russia, which became the largest oil supplier to China in 2025, accounting for 17.5% of China's imports.
How did China respond? With less affordable oil from Venezuela and Iran, China bought more expensive oil and continued smuggling.
China's countermove was to restrict rare earth exports.
How did the U.S. respond? By establishing five new/collaborative departments:
*Economic Defence Unit
*Office of Strategic Capital
*Export - Import Bank
*Department of War
*Treasury Department
These five departments share a common priority: rapidly stockpiling strategic mineral reserves needed by the U.S. Hence, the U.S. government took equity stakes in rare earth miner MP Materials (US.MP) and funded mineral trader Glencore to stockpile minerals. Of course, there's also the recent takeover of Greenland, which is not about military security but about the mineral resources beneath. In short, the U.S. is urgently catching up on decades of neglect in stockpiling resources.
Why was it neglected? Stockpiling ties up capital, which Wall Street and U.S. businesses focused on short-term profits dislike. Moreover, the U.S. government, due to financial difficulties, lacked funds for stockpiling. But now that the conflict has become direct, it must pull out all stops to stockpile materials, including invading Venezuela and forcibly taking over Greenland. In short, any country possessing resources the U.S. needs will be "entered," akin to Japan's "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," now dubbed the "American Empire Exclusive Prosperity Sphere."
It's clear that time works against China; each week delayed continues to raise the cost of China's oil imports.
The U.S. can afford to delay for a year or even several years while gradually rebuilding strategic reserves. But if U.S. defense and AI industries lack urgently needed rare earths, they could collapse tomorrow—no need to talk grandly about how America will become great again.
*U.S. urgently sells soybeans to help farmers, consolidating midterm election votes*
However, American soybean farmers, a key voting bloc for Trump and the Republican Party, harvest their crops between September and November, primarily in September and October. Last year, U.S. soybeans couldn't be sold to China, and warehouses were full. This year, if they cannot sell in time and run out of storage, the soybeans will rot in the fields. Trump might tolerate it, but soybean farmers cannot.
Therefore, both China and the U.S. have decided on a swift resolution within 60 days. During this period, the U.S. will work hard to accumulate leverage to call its hand by January 10 next year or earlier. During this time, the U.S. government's spending will likely exceed any previous period, meaning fiscal deficits and U.S. debt will rise, rise, rise. Economists may furiously warn of trouble, citing increased money supply leading to inflation. Trump will say: "So what? Treasury Secretary Bessent will print enough dollars to cover it." Is that possible? Yes, we'll discuss that later.
The game between China and the U.S. over the next 60 days is pointless to predict, as the under-the-table kicks are impossible to foresee accurately. We'll wait to see the moves before discussing further.
As for the super achievement that rewrites the global AI landscape: China and the U.S. agreed to change Artificial Intelligence to Super Intelligence!!!
While the two men, Xi and Trump, hug each other on the surface while kicking each other under the table, wouldn't the two leading ladies also have their own showdown? The White House hostess, already a tall model, wears 8- or 9-inch high heels—why? Just to tower over the Chinese female guest by a head, perfectly aligning with MAGA. The Chinese female guest wears full Chinese red, matching her husband's Sun Yat-sen suit, forming a national team ensemble.
In diplomacy, nothing is trivial. How could clothing coordination at diplomatic events not become a major issue!!!
Having discussed the politics of the Xi-Trump summit, it's time to turn to the economics of the stock market.
Starting today (28th), the last three trading days before the National Day holiday for A-shares begin. The "pre-holiday risk-off" mindset may gradually give way to "post-holiday positioning," making the market more optimistic than now. This pattern is actually supported by historical market trends. According to Wind data back-testing over the nine years from 2017 to 2025, even excluding 2024 data (to avoid excessively inflating the average), the Wind All-A Index still shows a "first decline, then rise" bullish structure in the last three pre-holiday days.
Specifically: The third-to-last day is the "most dangerous" day: excluding 2024's policy interference, only 2 out of 8 years saw gains (25%), averaging a 0.68% decline, with a median of -0.48%. This is the day when pre-holiday risk-off sentiment is most concentrated and volume contraction is most extreme, with funds collectively reducing positions. The last two days clearly turn bullish: the probability of gains rises to 62%, and the average return shifts from negative to positive. This does not contradict "low volume"—after selling pressure exhausts in a low-volume environment, minimal buying (positioning for post-holiday gains plus pre-holiday stability) can push indices slightly higher. "Closing red on the last day" is a relatively stable calendar feature: in 9 years, the last day rose 6 times (67%), still 5 out of 8 (62%) excluding 2024, averaging +0.23%. The market tends to close on a positive note on the last trading day before a long holiday.
According to Gann theory and werewolf legend, major changes occur on full moon nights. The Mid-Autumn Festival has just passed. Will the market shift tone?
﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏
*Details of the "Busan Agreement" Extension*
The United States and China announced in September 2026 that they would extend the truce period of their "Busan Agreement" by two months to January 10.
*I. Background and Latest Developments*
*Extended Deadline: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that after talks in Washington, both sides agreed to extend the trade truce from the original November 10 to January 10.
*Origin of the Agreement: The Busan Agreement was a ceasefire consensus reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October 2025, regarding the trade war.
*Pursuing a Larger Deal: U.S. officials indicated that extending the deadline gives both sides more time to discuss whether a larger, comprehensive trade agreement can be reached.
*II. Core Contents of the Agreement*
*Tariff Adjustments: Both sides previously agreed to reduce some of the tariffs imposed on each other, and the U.S. also extended certain tariff exemptions.
*Export Controls: Both sides have paused export controls on rare earths and high-tech products for one year.
*Agricultural Purchases: China committed to resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural products. Senior Investor, Shek King-chuen
(Investing involves risk; every investor has a different risk tolerance, so independent thinking is essential. The author may trade based on market conditions.)
*Articles published in Economic Times, signed or unsigned, represent the authors' personal opinions and do not reflect the position of Economic Times. Economic Times plays the role of providing a free speech platform. (zz)
